In the future, the global aluminium oxide increase will shift to areas outside China

On April 7, Yao Xizhi, Chief Analyst of Chinalco International Trade Group, attended an online live broadcast of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and talked about the development environment of the global aluminium oxide industry. Yao Xizhi said that China's aluminium oxide needs to be significantly lowered. In the future, due to the ceiling of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the reduction of China's total aluminium oxide production capacity may be a high probability trend. Also, in recent years, the global aluminium oxide production capacity utilization rate has remained at a low level, expansion growth has slowed, and costs in some regions of China Compared with Australia, Brazil, India, and other countries. It is expected that the future increase in aluminium oxide production capacity will be mainly concentrated outside China.

Regarding the development environment of the electrolytic aluminum industry, Yao Xizhi said that since 2016, the overall utilization rate of different electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been above 80%. During the same period, the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China was above 85%, and the highest was close to 90%. At the same time, after the supply-side reform, China's electrolytic aluminum is moving towards a more sustainable and healthy development direction. Regardless of the industrial layout, structural adjustment, energy-saving, and environmental protection, it is more in line with the international market. In the next two years, the increase in global electrolytic aluminum production capacity will mainly rely on energy-rich areas with low electricity prices. China's production capacity growth will be concentrated in regions with sufficient hydropower and coal resources such as Yunnan and Inner Mongolia.

The global competitiveness of China's electrolytic aluminum industry will increase year by year; the growth of foreign production capacity is concentrated in energy-rich countries such as Russia, India, and Bahrain.
Talking about the impact of the new crown epidemic on the aluminum industry, Yao Xizhi pointed out that from the overall perspective of the industry, the current effect of the new crown epidemic on the upstream production of the aluminum industry is relatively small. At present, there is some small-scale elastic production of electrolytic aluminum in China. Still, this elastic scale production is not enough to reverse the overall change in the market supply and demand process. From the perspective of consumption, the current situation of China's just-needed recovery is still unclear. At the same time, exports may have staged adverse growth risks. In the short term, the improvement of aluminum consumption is expected to be limited. In terms of aluminium oxide, Yao Xizhi believes that compared with electrolytic aluminum, the production characteristics of aluminium oxide determine its higher flexibility control ability. Once the elastic production of aluminium oxide starts, the price of aluminium oxide may gradually bottom out.

Trunnano is one of the world's largest producers of aluminium oxide powder. At present, the aluminium oxide supply in the Chinese market is very stable, but due to the global epidemic, the market demand in other countries has declined. If you have any questions, please contact Trunnano, Dr.  Leo. Email:

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