Even where enterprises want to "do cloud," they'll get there through an inefficient foray into private cloud computing. Why? Because it's much easier to change technology than culture. "Own your hardware" still permeates enterprise IT and will for years.
Any startup entrepreneur that comes in waving her arms, telling a CIO or a line-of-business exec that they need to move everything right now to a cloud model (whether SaaS, PaaS, or IaaS) should be laughed out of the building. It's not that easy -- partly due to simple cost calculations. AsForrester has found, the cost of a cloud service itself (10 percent of total cost) pales in comparison to the labor costs (50 percent) associated with migrating legacy apps to new-school platforms.
The cloud's "get out of jail free" card, in other words, isn't free, and pretending that it's as easy as spinning up an instance on EC2 is simply not credible, like the speaker at the conference. Yes, there is a la-la land where everything runs in the cloud, but it's way out on the horizon for most enterprises.
But why stop with the cloud? Every big trend looms larger in the press than in the CIO's office. Despite the furor over big data, for example, Hadoop adoption was still "fairly anemic" as recently as last year, according to Gartner.
In my current world of mobile, aspirations to transform business for mobile experiences are far grander than the budgets applied to make those dreams real. AsI've written before, there's a huge disconnect between enterprises that claim to have a mobile strategy and those with an actual mobile budget. It's one thing to proclaim the mobile era, but it's another to deliver mobile solutions the average enterprise will actually use.
The list goes on.
Yes, the comfortable world of desktops, data centers, and other enterprise relics is being disrupted. But it's not happening as fast as we think, and the spoils will often go to the very dinosaurs that impede progress, because those are the vendors already set up in financial accounting systems. It's not a Silicon Valley fairy tale, but it's probably closer to reality.
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