What in Windows 10 — or about it — will be the biggest inhibitor to adoption by enterprise? "Probably inertia," said Kleynhans. "For the most part, hardware and software compatibility isn't a big blocker, although official ISV [independent software vendor] support may be, especially in regulated industries. But doing a large-scale Windows migration is a major project. While it is nice to say that this is the last one enterprises will have to do, they still have to do this one.
"Like any major project, it will take budgeting of time and resources. It will be disruptive. There are also things to learn and integrate into existing processes, such as the new servicing model, selecting a branch, and changes in how they manage things in order to keep current and supported."
[Computerworld couldn't resist a follow-up question about Kleynhans' reference to "the last one enterprises will have to do," asking him if that would, in fact, be the case. "I think Microsoft believes that," Kleynhans answered. "That's the plan of record. But things change. In 10 years, who know what will happen?"]
Will enterprises accept Windows 10's new patching and update schemes, or will they reflexively lock down devices with LTSB (long-term servicing branch) and just treat Windows 10 as they now do Window 7? "Some enterprises will undoubtedly try to fall back to the LTSB because it will seem safe and familiar," agreed Kleynhans. "But I suspect that they will quickly discover that the limitations make it unsuitable for a large portion of their users.
"Once they address the new update cadence for some users, it will be straightforward to extend it to a larger group, lessening the appeal of the LTSB. We will probably see some companies start with the majority of their users on LTSB, but quickly shift towards only those who really need it. By 2019 it is likely that LTSB will be a small percentage of users, less than 10%."
Will Windows 10 measurably help Microsoft in mobile?
"Well, it couldn't hurt," countered Kleynhans. "But it really is a big question whether it will draw developers to the platform with the kind of apps that are being developed for iOS and Android.
"The only thing that truly solves the problem is market share. If a developer perceives the entire Windows 10 ecosystem as a target, the market share number will look pretty good. However, it is likely that most phone developers will continue to focus solely on the Windows smartphone number, and that will dampen their interest."
What about Microsoft's Universal app strategy? Will that have an impact? "Microsoft certainly hopes it will," said Kleynhans. "But any impact will be a relatively slow build. It will be one more option in a broad collection of options for developers, even if they only focus on the PC: Should I develop a Web app, should I write a traditional Windows app, keep building .NET?
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