"I think developers targeting PCs will settle on a combination of Web and Universal apps, but that is likely to be 2018 or later, when a critical mass of Windows 10 devices is in businesses.
"Universal Windows apps are most immediately compelling to businesses looking at building something that needs to be accessed on a tablet and a PC, or potentially a 2-in-1. So it will help Windows 10 gain a stronger foothold in vertical business applications with a mobility component.
"In the short term, there may also be some success with games. People like casual games as a simple distraction, even on PCs, so that will be a reasonably good target."
Will there be a repeat of the scramble to get off Windows XP as Windows 7 nears retirement in January 2020? "There is a lot more awareness of the end-of-life of Windows 7 than there was of Windows XP's," Kleynhans said. "It is still fresh in the minds of a lot of companies, and so you are seeing it pop up on long-range road maps.
"Generally, companies will plan to be more proactive and will have great intentions about avoiding the mad dash to the finish line in 2019, but the realities of business, and human nature, will cause plans to slip. I expect it will be less of a scramble, but it will still be a scramble."
Will Microsoft be able to continue to charge for the OS or will it revert to a support model for revenue? "Microsoft will continue to charge for Windows," Kleynhans asserted. "The real question is whether users perceive that they are paying for Windows.
"The vast majority of users will get Windows as part of the device and the cost will be buried in the device, like the cost of the screen or battery. Unless you are building your own PCs, it won't be visible. Users will get all the updates on that device for free so they won't perceive that they ever pay for Windows.
"Enterprises, on the other hand, will be gradually coaxed towards a Software Assurance model with flexibility, deeper support, and additional management and security capabilities being the carrots offered over traditional volume licensing. This will look much more like a subscription model."
In hindsight, several of Microsoft's moves in 2014 now seem to be preliminary steps toward Windows 10, including the requirement that businesses migrate to Windows 8.1 Update within four months, and the deprecation of most IE editions other than IE11. Were these part of a master plan, or was Microsoft simply trying things?" "It's probably best to think of this as more an evolutionary process than a detailed master plan," said Kleynhans. "Obviously, there was always a plan to get people off older versions of IE. The specific timing, though, was in place before the details of Windows 10 were locked down.
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