In Latin America, according to Bokun, mobile operators are mainly concerned with handset price. "What our analyst was told is expect to see very aggressive Microsoft-Nokia products in terms of price," Bokun says. "If operators are telling this to us, then it's probable they have already talked about it with Microsoft and Nokia."
The one market where these advantages are missing for Nokia and Microsoft is North America. The compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 1015 for smartphones is slower here, at 17%, than for other markets (35% for Latin America). But in that period, Pyramid forecasts 750 million smartphones will be bought.
In 2010, the smartphone leaders in North America were RIM at 33% and Apple at 20%, according to Pyramid. But RIM is declining while Apple is growing strongly, according to Bokun. Nokia's share of the smartphone market was about 2% to 3%, and Bokun expects it will be about the same going forward (though she thinks Microsoft's acquisition of Skype, if the VoIP software is integrated as part of the Windows Phone OS, could add 2%-3% more in North America).
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