It's a two-step process, Duvall explains. Analysts apply data mining techniques against a massive database that provides very detailed profiles of its own members as well as "look-alikes" who fit the profile of swing voters. From there they develop models that predict which voter profiles will be most likely to respond positively to a campaign message and which type of issue will be most likely to move them to action.
"In some instances, we can take this research a level deeper through real-world experimentation," Duvall says. To accomplish this, Sierra staffers try out a range of specific messages on test groups to determine which will be the most effective before launching the campaign to the target audience. "We can see which messages are moving the voters. Before we could do cross-tabs and see the broad categories of people who might be moving, but with data mining we can go much deeper."
The 2012 election is shaping up to be the year of the data-driven, big data campaign. Political operatives in virtually every campaign, and across the political spectrum, are applying data mining techniques to mountains of new information from online sources that offer unparalleled insights into voter interests and habits.
For example, armed with more data, analysts can predict more accurately how individuals are likely to vote and whether they are Republicans or Democrats.
The ability for niche groups "to communicate only with people likely to support their cause didn't exist four years ago," says Patrick Ruffini, president of Engage DC.
As they combine online data -- including social media posts -- with traditional data sources such as consumer databases, analysts can target groups of voters that fit very detailed profiles and choose the messages that will be the most likely to achieve the desired response. This sort of analytics work, known as microtargeting, was already under way during the last presidential election cycle. But since then, the amount of information available about individual voters has exploded. Campaigns have become more sophisticated in its use, and the tent has expanded, with smaller advocacy groups and campaigns coming on board.
"That ability for niche groups, such as the Sierra Club, to communicate only with people likely to support their cause didn't exist four years ago," says Patrick Ruffini, president of Engage DC, a firm that handles online advertising and analytics work for the Republican National Committee and individual Republican candidates.
In search of the like-minded
Many of the voters the Sierra Club wants to reach aren't in its own member database, so Duvall works with Catalist, a consortium of progressive organizations that maintains a 500-terabyte database of information describing both registered and unregistered U.S. voters.
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