Affected by historic geopolitical events, the global crude oil supply has suffered a severe disruption. On Monday, international crude oil prices briefly broke through the $100 per barrel mark, hitting a new high in nearly four years. Although prices have since pulled back, the market widely believes that with the ongoing conflict with Iran, there is still significant upward room for oil prices.
The core reason for this market turmoil lies in the blockade of key transport routes. Given that approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil needs to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz, and with Iran threatening to attack passing tankers, oil loading and unloading operations in the region have come to a standstill. Data from the energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group shows that the scale of this potential supply disruption has already exceeded twice the historical record set during the 1956-1957 Suez Canal crisis.
What is more worrying is that due to major oil-producing countries, Saudi Arabia and the UAE being deeply embroiled in the geopolitical vortex, the global crude oil market’s “cushion”—spare capacity—has been significantly depleted. Bob McNally, President of Rapidan Energy Group, pointed out that this means the market currently lacks an effective safety valve, and there is no “swing producer” capable of quickly filling this supply gap.
As producers are forced to cut output due to inventory build-up, the pressure of rising oil prices has rapidly been transmitted to the consumer end. Data shows that U.S. gasoline prices have surged by about 50 cents over the past week, reaching $3.48 per gallon—a level that even exceeds the peak during the Trump administration.
In terms of market performance, U.S. WTI crude closed at $94.77 per barrel on Monday, ಮೇಲೆ 4.3%; while the international benchmark Brent crude settled at $98.96 per barrel, a sharp increase of 6.8%.