The global pandemic of the epidemic poses many challenges to economic globalization. Against this background, on March 14, the Chinese Academy of Reform held an expert network symposium on "economic globalization under the impact of the epidemic." The seminar discussed topics such as "the impact of the epidemic on the global economy," "the challenges and responses to economic globalization under the impact of the epidemic," "China's choice in the context of the impact of the epidemic on economic globalization," and other topics. The main views of experts are summarized as follows.
Sufficiently estimate the severe impact of the pandemic on the global economy
1. The epidemic has hit the global supply chain, industry chain, and value chain. Chi Fulin, director of the China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute, pointed out that the longer the epidemic lasts, the higher the impact and impact on the global supply chain, which may lead to the disruption of the supply chain in some industries. Zhang Yunling, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the impact of the epidemic, the first wave of effects was to cause China, as the center of the global supply chain, to suspend production and production, and the supply chain was broken, which in turn led to production and production crisis and consumer-driven crisis; the second wave was more countries An epidemic has emerged, and short-term effects have led to a decline in economic growth, increased market panic, and increased financial risks. The medium- and long-term impact deserves further observation and research. Li Gang, director, and researcher of the Academic Committee of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that since 2008, global value chains have been shortened, regional value chains have shown an increasing trend, and the epidemic situation has further increased this trend. Zhang Yansheng, the chief researcher of the China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that the global spread of the epidemic has directly impacted the three major production networks in East Asia, Europe, and North America, and its negative impact cannot be underestimated. Chi Fulin believes that due to restrictions on the flow of people, the epidemic has had a severe effect on industries such as tourism, catering, and transportation; due to the impact of the pandemic, the production of intermediate products such as critical parts and components was stopped, and automobile manufacturing, electrical and electronic, and pharmaceuticals were affected. The industry's overall demand and supply chain have caused severe shocks. Cao Yuanzheng, Chairman of BOC International Research Co., Ltd., believes that the impact of the epidemic on the industry may be "wave-shaped," one after another. The first wave of the pandemic impacted the high-tech sectors in Japan and South Korea; the second wave was the energy industries such as Iran and the Middle East; the third wave may be the European and American service industries. If the U.S. financial crisis occurs, it will have disastrous consequences for the global financial system.
2. The epidemic is likely to lead the global economy into recession. Jia Qingguo, the former dean and professor of Peking University's School of International Relations, pointed out that the epidemic not only caused a sudden stop in a large number of economic activities, but also the uncertainty of the epidemic exacerbated panic. In the coming period, the economies of most countries will continue to decline, and the world economy is likely to enter a recession. Li Gang, director of the Academic Committee of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that for the entire year of 2020, it is a high probability that the global economy will fall into a sustained recession. The OECD's Medium-Term Outlook Report lowers the global economic growth rate to 2.4%. If the epidemic spreads widely in Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America, the global commercial growth rate in 2020, maybe only 1.5%. Zhang Ming, director, and researcher of the International Investment Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that the global economic growth rate fell from 3.6% to 2.9% last year. This year, the global growth rate is likely to fall below 2.5%, which is the watershed of the global economic recession. According to Chen Wenling, chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, during the epidemic, the U.S. economy showed the characteristics of "four declines and four rises": economic growth fell, stock market bonds fell sharply, oil, gold, silver and bitcoin prices fell simultaneously, and U.S. credit fell sharply; Epidemic risks have risen dramatically, debt risks have increased, supply chain risks have risen significantly, and global decoupling risks have risen.
3. The spread of the epidemic has increased the possibility of a global economic crisis. Wang Jian, a researcher at the Chinese Macroeconomics Association, pointed out that the outbreak has not happened in a century and presents many new features. From an economic perspective, it may lead to a new form of world crisis characterized by shortage-type crises. That is, the economic shutdown caused the industrial chain to break, and production could not continue, resulting in severe supply shortages. Also, the stagnation of economic activity has led to a decline in income, making strong demand suppression and strong supply suppression coexist. Cao Yuanzheng believes that the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is far more significant than expected. Except for the U.S. stock market, fixed income markets, bulk raw materials markets, precious metals markets, and foreign exchange markets all fell in the same direction. The risk of a global financial system collapse is inevitable. Especially developing countries and countries along the "Belt and Road." Zhang Ming pointed out that the global economic and financial situation in the coming period is generally not optimistic. First, the stock market adjustments in developed countries have not yet ended; second, the global economy may fall into recession in the first half of this year; third, the two potential risk points of southern European national debt and emerging economies on the financial market may erupt in the future; fourth, international economic and trade issues after the epidemic The conflict may escalate again; fifth, governments will further relax domestic macro policies. In general, the macro-policy challenges to deal with financial market turmoil under the impact of the epidemic are far more significant than in 2008. Chi Fulin believes that if the epidemic continues for a while if the response of major world powers is inadequate. If globally coordinated action is slow, the global economic recession in the short term may evolve into a worldwide financial crisis.
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